Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.86 – 134.73

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.8 ±18

8276OPTRON#8276

Provisional

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX -0.36Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 100.96Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9603MTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 8.26Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.2 ±13.4

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 9.14Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 86.29Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 39.3Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8276, 9175, 9603

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8276, 9175, 9603

Auto

10.0 10%

Teleop

53.2 54%

Endgame

35.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9219, 7567, 9460

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9219, 7567, 9460

Auto

27.0 20%

Teleop

73.7 54%

Endgame

36.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.9pts

Blue projected score134.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.9
Score range: 87–157
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.8Season APEX264.2

10Auto27

53.2Teleop73.7

35.9Endgame36.2

65Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	49	48
endgame	37	40
foul	0	5
total	106	114

Result

Final score

106 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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