Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.74 – 55.26

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.1 ±15.3

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 182.2Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9218Alpha #9218

Provisional

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 11.97Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 78.57Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.7 ±20.2

10019SESI SENAI MINERSKILLS

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 32.04Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10298LUVER CONTROL

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 46.22Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9602CANINTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -23Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1156, 9218, 9110

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1156, 9218, 9110

Auto

46.3 18%

Teleop

155.6 60%

Endgame

56.2 22%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10019, 10298, 9602

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10019, 10298, 9602

Auto

2.6 5%

Teleop

27.8 54%

Endgame

21.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score272.7pts

Blue projected score55.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217.5
Score range: 33–295
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.1Season APEX156.7

46.3Auto2.6

155.6Teleop27.8

56.2Endgame21.5

91Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	8
teleop	227	49
endgame	87	28
foul	0	0
total	367	85

Result

Final score

367 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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