Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.7 – 135.82

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.7 ±18.1

9162ALL MIGHT

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 56.73Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11188SAR Dynamics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -18.14Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9168AGROBOT

Season APEX 85.1Event APEX 6.11Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.1 ±15

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 41.51Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 46.7Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 47.61Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9162, 11188, 9168

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9162, 11188, 9168

Auto

19.8 40%

Teleop

23.5 47%

Endgame

6.7 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9459, 9486, 5800

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9459, 9486, 5800

Auto

31.5 23%

Teleop

64.9 48%

Endgame

39.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.7pts

Blue projected score135.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.1
Score range: 23–158
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 121.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.7Season APEX190.1

19.8Auto31.5

23.5Teleop64.9

6.7Endgame39.7

96Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	20
teleop	29	21
endgame	29	42
foul	0	0
total	81	83

Result

Final score

81 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.