Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.34 – 117.82

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.6 ±18.6

10343Tera Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 27.36Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 1.33Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10466Federal Force

Season APEX 77Event APEX 34.65Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.2 ±15.8

9168AGROBOT

Season APEX 85.1Event APEX 18.1Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 19.41Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 80.31Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10343, 9219, 10466

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10343, 9219, 10466

Auto

14.7 21%

Teleop

52.7 76%

Endgame

2.3 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9168, 9461, 9110

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9168, 9461, 9110

Auto

10.9 10%

Teleop

74.1 69%

Endgame

21.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.3pts

Blue projected score117.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.5
Score range: 42–139
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 117.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.6Season APEX252.2

14.7Auto10.9

52.7Teleop74.1

2.3Endgame21.7

31Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	36
teleop	39	61
endgame	16	22
foul	0	0
total	74	119

Result

Final score

74 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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