Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.4 – 66.27

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.2 ±19.1

9604TUIUTECH

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 17.47Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9487KRYPTON FRC

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 61.38Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6902STRIKE

Provisional

Season APEX 27.7Event APEX -6.45Rank 48Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.2 ±16.3

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 35.54Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 4.7Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9168AGROBOT

Season APEX 85.1Event APEX 26.03Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9604, 9487, 6902

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9604, 9487, 6902

Auto

24.4 37%

Teleop

30.7 46%

Endgame

11.0 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7033, 9485, 9168

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7033, 9485, 9168

Auto

13.5 21%

Teleop

33.7 52%

Endgame

17.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.4pts

Blue projected score66.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.1
Score range: 42–96
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 134.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.2Season APEX190.2

24.4Auto13.5

30.7Teleop33.7

11Endgame17.4

30Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	9
teleop	24	45
endgame	7	14
foul	0	0
total	42	68

Result

Final score

42 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 16.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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