Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.91 – 51.85

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.4 ±16

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 19.27Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 31.44Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11201MangTech

Provisional

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 31.2Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.2 ±17.5

8882INFINITY BR

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 22.84Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 3.72Rank 49Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8276OPTRON#8276

Provisional

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 25.29Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9200, 9169, 11201

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9200, 9169, 11201

Auto

29.2 37%

Teleop

29.4 38%

Endgame

19.7 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8882, 6404, 8276

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8882, 6404, 8276

Auto

24.1 49%

Teleop

9.9 20%

Endgame

15.2 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.9pts

Blue projected score51.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.1
Score range: 31–103
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 118.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.4Season APEX141.2

29.2Auto24.1

29.4Teleop9.9

19.7Endgame15.2

116Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	11
teleop	88	0
endgame	45	12
foul	0	0
total	177	23

Result

Final score

177 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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