Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.48 – 157.09

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.1 ±16.5

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 70.21Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 25.33Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11188SAR Dynamics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -5.06Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.3 ±15.1

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 50.22Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9604TUIUTECH

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 18.7Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 88.17Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9085, 1884, 11188

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9085, 1884, 11188

Auto

19.5 22%

Teleop

45.9 51%

Endgame

24.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1860, 9604, 9047

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1860, 9604, 9047

Auto

21.4 14%

Teleop

88.7 58%

Endgame

42.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.5pts

Blue projected score157.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.6
Score range: 69–178
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 116.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.1Season APEX269.3

19.5Auto21.4

45.9Teleop88.7

24.9Endgame42.3

64Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	52
teleop	56	104
endgame	22	46
foul	0	0
total	89	202

Result

Final score

89 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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