Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.82 – 73.31

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.3 ±17

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 10.36Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9603MTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 19.55Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7459Taubatexas Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 36.91Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.7 ±19.2

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 46.92Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9602CANINTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -1.92Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9657SESI SENAI IPÊV4

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 28.31Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9199, 9603, 7459

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9199, 9603, 7459

Auto

9.4 15%

Teleop

41.0 67%

Endgame

11.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9459, 9602, 9657

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9459, 9602, 9657

Auto

25.8 40%

Teleop

22.8 35%

Endgame

16.6 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score66.8pts

Blue projected score73.3pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.5
Score range: 46–94
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 117.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.3Season APEX179.7

9.4Auto25.8

41Teleop22.8

11.2Endgame16.6

45Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	12
teleop	66	27
endgame	22	27
foul	0	0
total	95	66

Result

Final score

95 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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