Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.55 – 198.08

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249 ±16.2

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 43.59Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6902STRIKE

Provisional

Season APEX 27.7Event APEX 4.27Rank 48Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 101.69Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.3 ±14.7

1772The Brazilian Trail Blazers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 20Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 103.56Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 74.52Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9486, 6902, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9486, 6902, 9175

Auto

34.0 24%

Teleop

71.4 50%

Endgame

38.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1772, 7565, 7563

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1772, 7565, 7563

Auto

48.7 25%

Teleop

127.7 64%

Endgame

22.3 11%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.6pts

Blue projected score198.1pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.5
Score range: 129–219
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 116.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249Season APEX437.3

34Auto48.7

71.4Teleop127.7

38.8Endgame22.3

119Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	44
teleop	54	114
endgame	46	46
foul	5	10
total	130	214

Result

Final score

130 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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