Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.92 – 100.75

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 23.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.1 ±14.5

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 30.86Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11105GC 4 Tomorrow

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 14.71Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9162ALL MIGHT

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 82.35Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.7 ±18.4

11201MangTech

Provisional

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 31.01Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 51.22Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9218Alpha #9218

Provisional

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 18.52Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9461, 11105, 9162

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9461, 11105, 9162

Auto

31.3 24%

Teleop

68.7 54%

Endgame

27.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11201, 9460, 9218

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11201, 9460, 9218

Auto

23.7 25%

Teleop

48.1 50%

Endgame

24.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.9pts

Blue projected score100.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.2
Score range: 80–149
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.1Season APEX199.7

31.3Auto23.7

68.7Teleop48.1

27.8Endgame24.4

8Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	25
teleop	41	45
endgame	28	31
foul	0	5
total	86	106

Result

Final score

86 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 23.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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