Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.79 – 130.69

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.6 ±13.4

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 70.99Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 5.62Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -8.82Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±15.8

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 66.14Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10466Federal Force

Season APEX 77Event APEX 27.8Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 36.75Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7567, 9200, 9593

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7567, 9200, 9593

Auto

11.2 16%

Teleop

46.2 65%

Endgame

13.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9110, 10466, 9458

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9110, 10466, 9458

Auto

36.6 34%

Teleop

50.3 47%

Endgame

20.1 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score67.8pts

Blue projected score130.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.9
Score range: 47–152
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.6Season APEX266.8

11.2Auto36.6

46.2Teleop50.3

13.6Endgame20.1

163Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	45
teleop	74	79
endgame	44	49
foul	0	0
total	128	173

Result

Final score

128 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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