Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.39 – 18.97

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

48 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.7 ±14.5

9611SESI SENAI SC CyberRain

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 11.21Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 15.11Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8882INFINITY BR

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 30.07Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.7 ±20.8

9603MTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 12.82Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10019SESI SENAI MINERSKILLS

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX -5.26Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11188SAR Dynamics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 11.41Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9611, 7033, 8882

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9611, 7033, 8882

Auto

31.5 65%

Teleop

20.1 42%

Endgame

-3.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9603, 10019, 11188

/ 100 compat

Projected

19 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9603, 10019, 11188

Auto

0.4 4%

Teleop

6.1 55%

Endgame

4.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.4pts

Blue projected score19pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.4
Score range: -2–77
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 71 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.7Season APEX168.7

31.5Auto0.4

20.1Teleop6.1

-3.5Endgame4.5

89Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	11
teleop	18	9
endgame	14	3
foul	0	0
total	48	23

Result

Final score

48 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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