Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.39 – 41.53

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.5 ±17

7459Taubatexas Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 9.19Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9611SESI SENAI SC CyberRain

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 4.79Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1772The Brazilian Trail Blazers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 47.41Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.9 ±19.2

9178Cyber One

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 4.24Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11201MangTech

Provisional

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 34.35Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 2.94Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7459, 9611, 1772

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7459, 9611, 1772

Auto

13.5 22%

Teleop

27.6 44%

Endgame

21.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9178, 11201, 9593

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9178, 11201, 9593

Auto

6.6 20%

Teleop

19.6 59%

Endgame

7.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.4pts

Blue projected score41.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.9
Score range: 18–85
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 58 vs event baseline 134.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.5Season APEX159.9

13.5Auto6.6

27.6Teleop19.6

21.3Endgame7

0Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	15
teleop	0	6
endgame	6	0
foul	0	20
total	17	41

Result

Final score

17 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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