Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.17 – 122.8

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 58.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.6 ±17.3

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 90.41Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10298LUVER CONTROL

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 19.75Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9178Cyber One

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 6.01Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.2 ±18.6

9657SESI SENAI IPÊV4

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 36.06Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9168AGROBOT

Season APEX 85.1Event APEX 35.62Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 51.12Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9175, 10298, 9178

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9175, 10298, 9178

Auto

28.7 25%

Teleop

65.8 57%

Endgame

20.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9657, 9168, 9486

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9657, 9168, 9486

Auto

11.7 10%

Teleop

81.0 67%

Endgame

28.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.2pts

Blue projected score122.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.6
Score range: 95–144
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 116.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.6Season APEX219.2

28.7Auto11.7

65.8Teleop81

20.8Endgame28.9

140Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	30
teleop	84	21
endgame	67	23
foul	20	0
total	185	74

Result

Final score

185 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 58.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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