Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.33 – 108.54

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.7 ±15.6

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 62.01Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10345Sirius

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 18.9Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 5.42Rank 49Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.1 ±16.7

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 77.67Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9218Alpha #9218

Provisional

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 11.46Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9604TUIUTECH

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 19.41Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9459, 10345, 6404

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9459, 10345, 6404

Auto

21.4 27%

Teleop

37.1 46%

Endgame

22.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7563, 9218, 9604

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7563, 9218, 9604

Auto

35.3 35%

Teleop

55.3 55%

Endgame

10.5 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.3pts

Blue projected score108.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.2
Score range: 65–130
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 118.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.7Season APEX327.1

21.4Auto35.3

37.1Teleop55.3

22.2Endgame10.5

157Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	13
teleop	19	74
endgame	15	18
foul	0	0
total	51	105

Result

Final score

51 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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