Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.64 – 165.55

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416 ±16.5

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 42.92Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 8.63Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9602CANINTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -6.91Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.5 ±15.4

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 21.38Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 115.97Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10190UNIMATE - SESI SENAI SC

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 28.2Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1860, 1884, 9602

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1860, 1884, 9602

Auto

21.9 54%

Teleop

17.7 44%

Endgame

0.8 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9485, 7565, 10190

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9485, 7565, 10190

Auto

32.3 20%

Teleop

91.3 57%

Endgame

37.9 23%

Strengths

· 7565 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.6pts

Blue projected score165.5pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.9
Score range: 24–187
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 118.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416Season APEX312.5

21.9Auto32.3

17.7Teleop91.3

0.8Endgame37.9

85Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	26
teleop	41	90
endgame	31	23
foul	0	0
total	97	139

Result

Final score

97 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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