Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.87 – 128.35

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.9 ±13.9

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 42.37Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 92.18Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 63.32Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.9 ±18.8

11201MangTech

Provisional

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 37.09Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8276OPTRON#8276

Provisional

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 46.95Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 44.31Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5800, 9047, 9085

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5800, 9047, 9085

Auto

14.3 7%

Teleop

112.9 57%

Endgame

69.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11201, 8276, 9199

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11201, 8276, 9199

Auto

26.2 23%

Teleop

57.0 50%

Endgame

30.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score197.9pts

Blue projected score128.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.5
Score range: 108–218
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 113.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.9Season APEX150.9

14.3Auto26.2

112.9Teleop57

69.4Endgame30.6

4Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	17
teleop	144	7
endgame	49	23
foul	0	0
total	229	47

Result

Final score

229 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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