Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.08 – 83.14

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

48 – 13

Prediction missed · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.1 ±17.7

11188SAR Dynamics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -0.6Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10466Federal Force

Season APEX 77Event APEX 51.55Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 1.13Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.7 ±19.2

9178Cyber One

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 11.53Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11105GC 4 Tomorrow

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 25.69Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9603MTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 45.92Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11188, 10466, 9200

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11188, 10466, 9200

Auto

1.2 2%

Teleop

29.0 53%

Endgame

24.2 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9178, 11105, 9603

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9178, 11105, 9603

Auto

15.7 24%

Teleop

44.2 67%

Endgame

5.6 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score52.1pts

Blue projected score83.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.1
Score range: 31–104
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 61 vs event baseline 117.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.1Season APEX171.7

1.2Auto15.7

29Teleop44.2

24.2Endgame5.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	10
teleop	26	3
endgame	1	0
foul	0	0
total	48	13

Result

Final score

48 – 13

Prediction missed · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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