Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.57 – 96.58

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.1 ±14.1

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 70.84Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 8.87Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 51.86Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.6 ±15

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 25.69Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10345Sirius

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 19.27Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 51.62Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9175, 9219, 9459

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9175, 9219, 9459

Auto

30.3 23%

Teleop

72.5 56%

Endgame

27.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9485, 10345, 9110

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9485, 10345, 9110

Auto

32.4 37%

Teleop

33.6 39%

Endgame

20.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.6pts

Blue projected score96.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35
Score range: 76–153
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 117.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.1Season APEX201.6

30.3Auto32.4

72.5Teleop33.6

27.4Endgame20.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	32
teleop	92	28
endgame	33	23
foul	0	15
total	151	98

Result

Final score

151 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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