Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.49 – 59.76

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 100.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.8 ±14.5

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 62.02Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 39.46Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8882INFINITY BR

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 26.01Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.9 ±16.2

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 11.85Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 56.84Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10343Tera Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX -8.93Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1884, 9458, 8882

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1884, 9458, 8882

Auto

11.9 9%

Teleop

73.7 58%

Endgame

40.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9486, 7563, 10343

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9486, 7563, 10343

Auto

35.8 68%

Teleop

34.8 66%

Endgame

-17.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.5pts

Blue projected score59.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.7
Score range: 39–148
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 116.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.8Season APEX281.9

11.9Auto35.8

73.7Teleop34.8

40.8Endgame-17.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	44
teleop	16	117
endgame	4	39
foul	0	0
total	67	200

Result

Final score

67 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 100.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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