Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.31 – 148.52

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.3 ±16

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 56.86Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8276OPTRON#8276

Provisional

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 43.91Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 9.54Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.9 ±15.1

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 123.62Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -2.11Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9168AGROBOT

Season APEX 85.1Event APEX 27.01Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9484, 8276, 9169

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9484, 8276, 9169

Auto

21.5 20%

Teleop

58.3 55%

Endgame

26.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1156, 9593, 9168

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1156, 9593, 9168

Auto

21.1 15%

Teleop

95.7 67%

Endgame

26.1 18%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.3pts

Blue projected score148.5pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.2
Score range: 90–169
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.3Season APEX397.9

21.5Auto21.1

58.3Teleop95.7

26.9Endgame26.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	4
teleop	62	142
endgame	48	28
foul	0	0
total	159	174

Result

Final score

159 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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