Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.33 – 95.55

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 11.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.5 ±15.8

10190UNIMATE - SESI SENAI SC

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 29.1Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 36.02Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8882INFINITY BR

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 19.21Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.8 ±17

9162ALL MIGHT

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 61.92Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9657SESI SENAI IPÊV4

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 35.79Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX -2.16Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10190, 9200, 8882

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10190, 9200, 8882

Auto

19.5 25%

Teleop

42.6 54%

Endgame

17.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9162, 9657, 9219

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9162, 9657, 9219

Auto

29.3 33%

Teleop

40.4 45%

Endgame

20.0 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.3pts

Blue projected score95.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.2
Score range: 60–120
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 134.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.5Season APEX202.8

19.5Auto29.3

42.6Teleop40.4

17.4Endgame20

11Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	31
teleop	43	34
endgame	23	11
foul	0	0
total	80	76

Result

Final score

80 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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