Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.27 – 100.71

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.9 ±16

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 62.98Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 28.03Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6902STRIKE

Provisional

Season APEX 27.7Event APEX -6.74Rank 48Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.1 ±18.6

10019SESI SENAI MINERSKILLS

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 17.58Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7459Taubatexas Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 20.07Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10190UNIMATE - SESI SENAI SC

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 63.06Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7567, 9199, 6902

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7567, 9199, 6902

Auto

25.4 31%

Teleop

46.6 57%

Endgame

9.8 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10019, 7459, 10190

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10019, 7459, 10190

Auto

18.2 18%

Teleop

60.3 61%

Endgame

20.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.3pts

Blue projected score100.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.4
Score range: 63–122
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.9Season APEX183.1

25.4Auto18.2

46.6Teleop60.3

9.8Endgame20.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	10
teleop	73	15
endgame	26	14
foul	0	15
total	124	54

Result

Final score

124 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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