Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.01 – 101.02

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298 ±12.2

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 64.19Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 16.78Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 49.04Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.2 ±16

9602CANINTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 29.01Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 67.26Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 4.75Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9460, 7033, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

130 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9460, 7033, 9175

Auto

18.4 15%

Teleop

72.8 58%

Endgame

34.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9602, 9085, 9200

/ 100 compat

Projected

101 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9602, 9085, 9200

Auto

1.3 1%

Teleop

53.9 53%

Endgame

46.1 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130pts

Blue projected score101pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29
Score range: 81–150
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 113.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298Season APEX294.2

18.4Auto1.3

72.8Teleop53.9

34.3Endgame46.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	11
teleop	83	20
endgame	39	18
foul	0	0
total	161	49

Result

Final score

161 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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