Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.82 – 108.07

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 49.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.5 ±17

9218Alpha #9218

Provisional

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 9.87Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 48.71Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 1.24Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±17

9603MTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 48.71Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8882INFINITY BR

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 8.7Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 50.66Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9218, 9047, 9485

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9218, 9047, 9485

Auto

3.6 7%

Teleop

35.5 69%

Endgame

12.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9603, 8882, 9110

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9603, 8882, 9110

Auto

13.4 14%

Teleop

49.1 51%

Endgame

33.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.8pts

Blue projected score108.1pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.2
Score range: 40–128
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 111.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.5Season APEX239.3

3.6Auto13.4

35.5Teleop49.1

12.6Endgame33.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	33
teleop	77	49
endgame	39	16
foul	0	25
total	144	123

Result

Final score

144 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 49.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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