Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

39.23 – 24.84

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

43 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 127.1 ±17.5

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 22.54Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11188SAR Dynamics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 5.41Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 11.28Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.7 ±15

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 50Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -6.76Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX -18.4Rank 49Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9219, 11188, 9486

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9219, 11188, 9486

Auto

15.9 41%

Teleop

9.7 25%

Endgame

12.8 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9458, 9593, 6404

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9458, 9593, 6404

Auto

2.6 23%

Teleop

5.9 51%

Endgame

3.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score39.2pts

Blue projected score24.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.4
Score range: 4–60
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 79 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

127.1Season APEX193.7

15.9Auto2.6

9.7Teleop5.9

12.8Endgame3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	18
teleop	14	7
endgame	6	11
foul	0	0
total	43	36

Result

Final score

43 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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