Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.12 – 33.46

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.8 ±13.3

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 51.6Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 51.56Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 12.96Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.8 ±16.5

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 18.37Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9178Cyber One

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 1.45Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 13.64Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9461, 7567, 9169

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9461, 7567, 9169

Auto

26.1 23%

Teleop

61.0 53%

Endgame

28.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9199, 9178, 5800

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9199, 9178, 5800

Auto

10.9 40%

Teleop

10.9 40%

Endgame

5.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.1pts

Blue projected score33.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.7
Score range: 12–137
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.8Season APEX193.8

26.1Auto10.9

61Teleop10.9

28.1Endgame5.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	21
teleop	72	62
endgame	21	15
foul	0	0
total	129	98

Result

Final score

129 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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