Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.26 – 130.26

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.1 ±18.8

9611SESI SENAI SC CyberRain

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -4.72Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8276OPTRON#8276

Provisional

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 50Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10019SESI SENAI MINERSKILLS

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 18.98Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.7 ±15.8

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 50Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9162ALL MIGHT

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 26.83Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10466Federal Force

Season APEX 77Event APEX 53.43Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9611, 8276, 10019

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9611, 8276, 10019

Auto

14.8 24%

Teleop

28.8 47%

Endgame

17.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1860, 9162, 10466

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1860, 9162, 10466

Auto

28.9 23%

Teleop

66.9 54%

Endgame

28.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.3pts

Blue projected score130.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66
Score range: 43–151
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.1Season APEX253.7

14.8Auto28.9

28.8Teleop66.9

17.4Endgame28.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	40
teleop	11	75
endgame	0	34
foul	0	0
total	22	149

Result

Final score

22 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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