Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.99 – 48.59

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.6 ±18.8

10343Tera Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 14.57Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9657SESI SENAI IPÊV4

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 21.71Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 89.71Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.8 ±17

6902STRIKE

Provisional

Season APEX 27.7Event APEX 0.03Rank 48Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 38Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 10.56Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10343, 9657, 1884

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10343, 9657, 1884

Auto

21.1 17%

Teleop

79.1 64%

Endgame

24.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6902, 9459, 7033

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6902, 9459, 7033

Auto

5.8 12%

Teleop

30.0 62%

Endgame

12.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score126pts

Blue projected score48.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.4
Score range: 29–146
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 109.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.6Season APEX145.8

21.1Auto5.8

79.1Teleop30

24.3Endgame12.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	29
teleop	41	25
endgame	8	13
foul	0	15
total	67	82

Result

Final score

67 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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