Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.15 – 128.44

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

15 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 6.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.3 ±17.5

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 3.33Rank 49Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11105GC 4 Tomorrow

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 18.06Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9602CANINTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 1.76Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.3 ±17

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 95.74Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 6Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10019SESI SENAI MINERSKILLS

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 26.7Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6404, 11105, 9602

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6404, 11105, 9602

Auto

9.6 42%

Teleop

6.6 29%

Endgame

6.4 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9085, 9459, 10019

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9085, 9459, 10019

Auto

19.7 16%

Teleop

63.0 50%

Endgame

42.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score23.2pts

Blue projected score128.4pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.3
Score range: -1–152
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 134.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.3Season APEX221.3

9.6Auto19.7

6.6Teleop63

6.4Endgame42.9

103Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	10
teleop	5	78
endgame	0	45
foul	5	0
total	15	133

Result

Final score

15 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 6.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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