Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

337.67 – 204.79

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 726.4 ±11.2

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 107.27Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 17.96Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 212.44Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409 ±11.7

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 84.88Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9611SESI SENAI SC CyberRain

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 4.92Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 114.99Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7563, 1884, 1156

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7563, 1884, 1156

Auto

56.0 17%

Teleop

203.0 60%

Endgame

77.6 23%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7565, 9611, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7565, 9611, 9175

Auto

41.1 21%

Teleop

118.3 60%

Endgame

39.3 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score337.7pts

Blue projected score204.8pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.9
Score range: 181–362
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 132.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

726.4Season APEX409

56Auto41.1

203Teleop118.3

77.6Endgame39.3

0Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	39
teleop	157	89
endgame	49	53
foul	5	5
total	282	186

Result

Final score

282 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts

Match videos

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