Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.89 – 150.59

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.4 ±15.8

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 55.69Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9045North Lions SESI/SENAI

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 24.03Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 80.17Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426 ±11

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 1.1Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 73.6Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 75.89Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9199, 9045, 9047

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9199, 9045, 9047

Auto

34.0 23%

Teleop

74.9 50%

Endgame

41.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9460, 7565, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9460, 7565, 9175

Auto

33.7 22%

Teleop

87.0 58%

Endgame

29.7 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score159.9pts

Blue projected score150.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.3
Score range: 131–180
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 108.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.4Season APEX426

34Auto33.7

74.9Teleop87

41.9Endgame29.7

37Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	38
teleop	75	136
endgame	36	46
foul	0	10
total	141	230

Result

Final score

141 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 pts

Match videos

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