Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.93 – 152.86

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.1 ±13.3

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 50.05Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 49.75Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 38.13Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414 ±15.8

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 77.52Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9166TecRobot

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX 20.17Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 55.17Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9169, 9458, 9200

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9169, 9458, 9200

Auto

33.8 26%

Teleop

61.3 47%

Endgame

36.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9085, 9166, 10291

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9085, 9166, 10291

Auto

39.1 26%

Teleop

69.5 46%

Endgame

41.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.9pts

Blue projected score152.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.9
Score range: 119–172
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 108.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.1Season APEX414

33.8Auto39.1

61.3Teleop69.5

36Endgame41.8

0Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	39
teleop	56	63
endgame	29	58
foul	0	0
total	131	160

Result

Final score

131 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Match videos

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