Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

355.37 – 166.14

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

383 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 676 ±11.2

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 106.49Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 27.31Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 221.57Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.4 ±15.8

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 57.6Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9045North Lions SESI/SENAI

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 26.08Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 82.46Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7563, 9066, 1156

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7563, 9066, 1156

Auto

63.3 18%

Teleop

214.3 60%

Endgame

76.8 22%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9199, 9045, 9047

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.1 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9199, 9045, 9047

Auto

32.6 21%

Teleop

82.5 53%

Endgame

40.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score355.4pts

Blue projected score166.1pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.2
Score range: 147–374
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 522 vs event baseline 106.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

676Season APEX233.4

63.3Auto32.6

214.3Teleop82.5

76.8Endgame40.7

20Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	39
teleop	226	49
endgame	77	46
foul	0	5
total	383	139

Result

Final score

383 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts

Match videos

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