Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.17 – 129.46

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426 ±11

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 4Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 74.96Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 78.21Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.5 ±18.4

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 57.06Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9050Tucanus

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 33.43Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9164Tech Vikings

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 38.97Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9460, 7565, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9460, 7565, 9175

Auto

35.4 23%

Teleop

93.7 60%

Endgame

27.8 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9484, 9050, 9164

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9484, 9050, 9164

Auto

24.9 19%

Teleop

66.2 50%

Endgame

40.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.2pts

Blue projected score129.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.7
Score range: 110–176
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 106.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426Season APEX296.5

35.4Auto24.9

93.7Teleop66.2

27.8Endgame40.9

49Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	56	19
endgame	35	6
foul	0	0
total	118	45

Result

Final score

118 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 pts

Match videos

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