Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.66 – 147.42

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280 ±16.6

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 20.71Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9049SESI SENAI STEAMPUNK MONKEY FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 21.54Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 56.41Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±13.9

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 59.77Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 67.81Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 19.84Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9459, 9049, 7567

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9459, 9049, 7567

Auto

18.1 19%

Teleop

45.6 48%

Endgame

30.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1860, 9110, 7033

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1860, 9110, 7033

Auto

32.1 23%

Teleop

63.7 46%

Endgame

43.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.7pts

Blue projected score147.4pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.8
Score range: 80–166
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 106.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280Season APEX257.3

18.1Auto32.1

45.6Teleop63.7

30.4Endgame43.1

39Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	32
teleop	26	54
endgame	22	59
foul	0	0
total	79	145

Result

Final score

79 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts

Match videos

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