Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.93 – 128.39

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414 ±15.8

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 73.73Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9166TecRobot

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX 17.03Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 53.17Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.5 ±18.4

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 56.96Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9050Tucanus

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 32.85Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9164Tech Vikings

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 38.58Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9085, 9166, 10291

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9085, 9166, 10291

Auto

38.7 27%

Teleop

68.4 49%

Endgame

33.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9484, 9050, 9164

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9484, 9050, 9164

Auto

23.5 18%

Teleop

66.5 50%

Endgame

41.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143.9pts

Blue projected score128.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.5
Score range: 109–163
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 105.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414Season APEX296.5

38.7Auto23.5

68.4Teleop66.5

33.7Endgame41.9

78Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	29
teleop	67	65
endgame	62	39
foul	0	0
total	171	133

Result

Final score

171 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Match videos

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