Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
176.51 – 141.56
61%39%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
103 – 126
Prediction missed · off by 44.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 426 ±11
Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 9.57Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 81.78Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 85.16Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.1 ±13.3
Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 51.4Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 52.04Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 38.12Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9460, 7565, 9175
82
/ 100 compatProjected
176.5 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 9460, 7565, 9175
Auto
36.0 20%
Teleop
103.0 58%
Endgame
37.3 21%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 9169, 9458, 9200
76
/ 100 compatProjected
141.6 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 9169, 9458, 9200
Auto
29.4 21%
Teleop
67.9 49%
Endgame
41.9 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.08
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score176.5pts
Blue projected score141.6pts
Red win probability61%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 24%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 34.9
- Score range
- 123–196
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
426Season APEX321.1
36Auto29.4
103Teleop67.9
37.3Endgame41.9
47Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 34 | 48 |
| teleop | 67 | 38 |
| endgame | 2 | 20 |
| foul | 0 | 20 |
| total | 103 | 126 |
Result
Final score
103 – 126
Prediction missed · off by 44.5 pts
Match videos
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