Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.77 – 153.24

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±13.9

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 54.88Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 63.42Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 17.47Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.4 ±15.8

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 54.48Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9045North Lions SESI/SENAI

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 19.75Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 79.01Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1860, 9110, 7033

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1860, 9110, 7033

Auto

33.3 26%

Teleop

57.4 44%

Endgame

39.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9199, 9045, 9047

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9199, 9045, 9047

Auto

34.0 25%

Teleop

70.9 51%

Endgame

33.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.8pts

Blue projected score153.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.5
Score range: 117–172
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 104.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.3Season APEX233.4

33.3Auto34

57.4Teleop70.9

39.8Endgame33.3

61Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	30
teleop	76	101
endgame	48	53
foul	20	0
total	175	184

Result

Final score

175 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 35 pts

Match videos

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