Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

360.79 – 91.93

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

337 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 676 ±11.2

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 108.58Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 29.04Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 223.17Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280 ±16.6

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 17.7Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9049SESI SENAI STEAMPUNK MONKEY FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 18.87Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 55.36Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7563, 9066, 1156

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7563, 9066, 1156

Auto

62.2 17%

Teleop

214.9 60%

Endgame

82.1 23%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9459, 9049, 7567

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.9 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9459, 9049, 7567

Auto

14.7 17%

Teleop

40.0 47%

Endgame

31.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score360.8pts

Blue projected score91.9pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 268.9
Score range: 73–380
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 103.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

676Season APEX280

62.2Auto14.7

214.9Teleop40

82.1Endgame31.2

18Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	30
teleop	209	66
endgame	60	35
foul	0	0
total	337	131

Result

Final score

337 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Match videos

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