Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
147.28 – 160.71
46%54%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
89 – 243
Prediction correct · off by 70.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 414 ±15.8
Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 75.98Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 41.6Event APEX 18.64Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 52.66Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426 ±11
Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 4.01Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 76.93Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 79.77Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9085, 9166, 10291
77
/ 100 compatProjected
147.3 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 9085, 9166, 10291
Auto
39.4 27%
Teleop
63.1 44%
Endgame
42.3 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9460, 7565, 9175
81
/ 100 compatProjected
160.7 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 9460, 7565, 9175
Auto
32.7 21%
Teleop
91.4 57%
Endgame
35.0 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.47
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score147.3pts
Blue projected score160.7pts
Red win probability46%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 31%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -13.4
- Score range
- 127–181
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
414Season APEX426
39.4Auto32.7
63.1Teleop91.4
42.3Endgame35
67Consistency42
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 40 |
| teleop | 20 | 140 |
| endgame | 36 | 63 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 89 | 243 |
Result
Final score
89 – 243
Prediction correct · off by 70.3 pts
Match videos
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