Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.49 – 164.62

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±13.9

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 56.78Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 65.54Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 18.17Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426 ±11

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 5.12Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 78.33Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 81.17Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1860, 9110, 7033

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1860, 9110, 7033

Auto

30.3 22%

Teleop

62.5 46%

Endgame

42.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9460, 7565, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9460, 7565, 9175

Auto

34.4 21%

Teleop

95.7 59%

Endgame

32.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140.5pts

Blue projected score164.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.1
Score range: 120–185
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 110.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.3Season APEX426

30.3Auto34.4

62.5Teleop95.7

42.1Endgame32.6

56Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	23
teleop	32	65
endgame	43	49
foul	5	0
total	116	137

Result

Final score

116 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Match videos

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