Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

361.31 – 154.44

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 676 ±11.2

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 108.4Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 28.69Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 224.22Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414 ±15.8

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 78.59Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9166TecRobot

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX 21.66Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 54.19Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7563, 9066, 1156

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7563, 9066, 1156

Auto

66.6 18%

Teleop

216.8 60%

Endgame

77.0 21%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9085, 9166, 10291

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9085, 9166, 10291

Auto

38.8 25%

Teleop

68.2 45%

Endgame

45.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score361.3pts

Blue projected score154.4pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 206.9
Score range: 134–381
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 109.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

676Season APEX414

66.6Auto38.8

216.8Teleop68.2

77Endgame45.4

12Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	42
teleop	127	37
endgame	77	28
foul	5	5
total	296	112

Result

Final score

296 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 pts

Match videos

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