Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.61 – 146.89

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.1 ±13.3

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 49.47Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 49.97Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 37.17Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±13.9

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 58.44Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 68.43Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 20.02Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9169, 9458, 9200

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9169, 9458, 9200

Auto

36.2 28%

Teleop

60.3 46%

Endgame

34.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1860, 9110, 7033

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1860, 9110, 7033

Auto

31.6 23%

Teleop

61.9 44%

Endgame

46.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.6pts

Blue projected score146.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.3
Score range: 117–167
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.1Season APEX257.3

36.2Auto31.6

60.3Teleop61.9

34.5Endgame46.5

0Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	26
teleop	23	59
endgame	16	19
foul	10	0
total	99	104

Result

Final score

99 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts

Match videos

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