Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.72 – 42.86

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.4 ±17.2

8066WOLF ARMY ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 9.43Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 24.29Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 32Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113.1 ±22.5

10917M.A.P.L.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 23.43Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10295FOREST GUARDIANS

Provisional

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 10Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10297PANTANALBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 9.43Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8066, 9199, 7033

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8066, 9199, 7033

Auto

9.4 15%

Teleop

32.9 51%

Endgame

22.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10917, 10295, 10297

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10917, 10295, 10297

Auto

15.2 35%

Teleop

16.6 39%

Endgame

11.1 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.7pts

Blue projected score42.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.9
Score range: 27–82
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 91.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.4Season APEX113.1

9.4Auto15.2

32.9Teleop16.6

22Endgame11.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	13
teleop	40	28
endgame	13	23
foul	0	0
total	65	64

Result

Final score

65 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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