Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

37.57 – 37.57

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 300

Prediction missed · off by 164.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465 ±13.9

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX -Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX -Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX -Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390 ±15.8

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX -Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9050Tucanus

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX -Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9219, 10291, 7567

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9219, 10291, 7567

Auto

11.3 30%

Teleop

18.8 50%

Endgame

7.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9486, 9050, 1156

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9486, 9050, 1156

Auto

11.3 30%

Teleop

18.8 50%

Endgame

7.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score37.6pts

Blue projected score37.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 24–52
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 75.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465Season APEX390

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	48
teleop	44	168
endgame	38	84
foul	5	0
total	105	300

Result

Final score

105 – 300

Prediction missed · off by 164.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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