Qualification · Qualification 70
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
108.34 – 120.77
46%54%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
92 – 54
Prediction missed · off by 41.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.2 ±16.3
9163HYDRA
Provisional
Season APEX 32.4Event APEX 8.89Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 42.91Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 56.54Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539.8 ±17.2
Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 58.35Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
10263Temari Robotics
Provisional
Season APEX 35.8Event APEX 26.5Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Season APEX 233.7Event APEX 35.92Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9163, 9200, 7567
65
/ 100 compatProjected
108.3 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 9163, 9200, 7567
Auto
19.2 19%
Teleop
54.8 55%
Endgame
26.0 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10291, 10263, 9066
70
/ 100 compatProjected
120.8 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 10291, 10263, 9066
Auto
24.2 20%
Teleop
62.9 51%
Endgame
37.0 30%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.36
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score108.3pts
Blue projected score120.8pts
Red win probability46%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 30%, blue 24%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -12.4
- Score range
- 90–139
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
345.2Season APEX539.8
19.2Auto24.2
54.8Teleop62.9
26Endgame37
34Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 44 |
| teleop | 44 | 8 |
| endgame | 28 | 2 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 92 | 54 |
Result
Final score
92 – 54
Prediction missed · off by 41.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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