Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

41.38 – 41.38

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

44 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.1 ±17.2

9305MonT

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX -Rank 47Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9611SESI SENAI SC CyberRain

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9066Cavalo Vendado

Season APEX 233.7Event APEX -Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.5 ±21.4

9617Metal Knight

Provisional

Season APEX 42Event APEX -Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9045North Lions SESI/SENAI

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX -Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9046SESI SENAI BBTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX -Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9305, 9611, 9066

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9305, 9611, 9066

Auto

12.4 30%

Teleop

20.7 50%

Endgame

8.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9617, 9045, 9046

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9617, 9045, 9046

Auto

12.4 30%

Teleop

20.7 50%

Endgame

8.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41.4pts

Blue projected score41.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 26–56
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 59 vs event baseline 82.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.1Season APEX143.5

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	8
teleop	26	5
endgame	7	2
foul	0	0
total	44	15

Result

Final score

44 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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