Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.68 – 60.27

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.6 ±14.5

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 17.69Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 54.57Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11105GC 4 Tomorrow

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX -9.58Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.7 ±17.7

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 20.67Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9162ALL MIGHT

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 41.13Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9305MonT

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX -1.53Rank 47Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7033, 1860, 11105

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7033, 1860, 11105

Auto

19.3 34%

Teleop

24.6 44%

Endgame

12.1 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9486, 9162, 9305

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9486, 9162, 9305

Auto

5.0 8%

Teleop

37.1 59%

Endgame

20.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.7pts

Blue projected score60.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.4
Score range: 42–81
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 101.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.6Season APEX165.7

19.3Auto5

24.6Teleop37.1

12.1Endgame20.6

84Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	18
teleop	28	38
endgame	11	30
foul	0	0
total	61	86

Result

Final score

61 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 13.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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