Regional Brazil - Festival SESI de Educação

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

24.93 – 19.39

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

45 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 86.8 ±21.4

10295FOREST GUARDIANS

Provisional

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 0.11Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9166TecRobot

Season APEX 41.6Event APEX 16.45Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9614ROBOSSAUROS

Provisional

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 8.37Rank 34Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.4 ±20.5

9048SESI/SENAI P0T1BAT (Potibat)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 8.42Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9046SESI SENAI BBTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 9.71Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 1.26Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10295, 9166, 9614

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10295, 9166, 9614

Auto

19.9 87%

Teleop

2.4 10%

Endgame

0.6 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9048, 9046, 9485

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9048, 9046, 9485

Auto

4.5 24%

Teleop

5.3 28%

Endgame

9.3 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score24.9pts

Blue projected score19.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.5
Score range: 1–43
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 73 vs event baseline 102.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

86.8Season APEX131.4

19.9Auto4.5

2.4Teleop5.3

0.6Endgame9.3

39Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	10
teleop	7	12
endgame	2	6
foul	15	0
total	45	28

Result

Final score

45 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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